New Delhi: The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) leadership is facing criticism from within the party for excluding almost half of its sitting MPs (132 out of 303) from the fray in the Lok Sabha elections. Due to this dissatisfaction, some leaders have also changed sides, including sitting MPs like Rahul Kaswan. Kaswan from Churu in Rajasthan and Ajay Nishad from Muzaffarpur in Bihar are now fighting under the banner of Congress.
Yet, despite discontent in around 100 seats over the choice of candidates, BJP election strategists have calculated that the payoff for removing incumbent candidates will be well worth the cost.
ThePrint’s analysis of data from the 2019 and 2014 Lok Sabha elections shows that in nine out of 10 constituencies where sitting MLAs were removed, the BJP still won. The party also performed well in those seats where sitting MLAs were not removed. Overall, the data appears to confirm the high command’s decision to replace MPs on the basis of anti-incumbency sentiment or “winnability factor”.
In 2014, the strike rate of candidates replacing incumbent candidates was 92.50 percent, while the strike rate of those contesting re-election was 87.18 percent.
In 2019, this gap narrowed to less than 1 per cent. The strike rate of replacement candidates was 91.26 per cent (94 out of 103), while the strike rate of repeat incumbents was 90.80 per cent (148 out of 163).
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![2019 strike rate Lok Sabha](https://static.theprint.in/wp-content/uploads/2024/05/A-2019-1024x628.jpg?compress=true&quality=80&w=800&dpr=0.7)
However, the results vary by state/union territory and no clear pattern emerges.
Of the 27 states and union territories (UTs) where the BJP had MPs in 2019, the party retained all its seats in 17.
However, the BJP lost its only MPs in Tamil Nadu and Dadra and Nagar Haveli, where candidates were given tickets again. Additionally, it lost both its seats in Andhra Pradesh and one seat in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, all of which had non-incumbent candidates.
Similarly, in Jharkhand and Maharashtra, the only losses for the BJP were on seats where candidates were given tickets again. In contrast, the party’s combined three defeats in Chhattisgarh and Assam occurred on seats where incumbents were replaced.
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Big hitters are also out in 2024
According to party spokesperson RP Singh, the strategy behind removing sitting MPs is the “winnability factor”.
“While finalising the party’s candidate, decisions are taken based on surveys, feedback from party workers and other factors,” he told ThePrint.
However, political analyst Sandeep Shastri argued that removing previous winners had more to do with stemming widespread anti-incumbency.
Shastri said, “Once you are in power for ten years, how can you divert attention from the performance of the government, where there may be some clear signs of anti-incumbency? “One way to do this is to introduce the notion of changing candidates and bringing in new representatives, hopefully this will offset any existing factors.”
In this election, BJP has not given more percentage of tickets – 43.2 percent – than in 2014 or 2008.
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Of the BJP’s total 303 seats, three have gone to allies this time — Kolar (JD-S) in Karnataka, Sheohar (JDU) in Bihar, and Baghpat (RLD) in UP.
The choice of BJP candidates among the remaining 300 has revealed some surprising patterns.
For example, 53 removed MPs (40.2 percent) won their seats by a margin of at least 3 lakh votes in 2019. This includes 8 MPs whose victory margin was between 5 to 6 lakh votes.
In these, Sanjay Bhatia of Karnal, who won by 6.56 lakh votes, has been replaced by former Haryana CM Manohar Lal Khattar. Damodar Aggarwal has been given the ticket in place of Subhash Chandra Baheria of Bhilwara, who won by 6.1 lakh votes. North West Delhi MP Hans Raj Hans, who won by 5.5 lakh votes, has been sent to contest the Lok Sabha elections from Faridkot in Punjab.
Other high margin winners who have been ousted include Hazaribagh MP Jayant Sinha and Surat’s Darshan Vikram Jardosh.
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turmoil in the states
In Uttar Pradesh, where the BJP musters its maximum strength, the party has removed every fourth MP this time. Of the 63 sitting MPs, 16 (or 25.4 per cent) have been dropped. The decision may be influenced by the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, where the strike rate for new candidates was 88 per cent, while for repeat incumbents it was 76 per cent.
Among other states with at least seven BJP MPs, the highest percentage of MPs removed is from Delhi (85.7 per cent). Except Manoj Tiwari from North East Delhi, all the other six sitting MPs, including Union Minister of State Meenakshi Lekhi and former Union Minister Dr Harsh Vardhan, have been removed. Delhi is followed by Chhattisgarh (7 out of 9 or 77.7 per cent) and Haryana (6 out of 10 or 60 per cent).
In other major states, the BJP has replaced more than 50 per cent of sitting MPs in Karnataka (14 out of 24), Rajasthan (14 out of 24), and Gujarat (14 out of 26) and Madhya Pradesh (14 out of 28). Exactly half) has been changed. In 2019, the party won the latter three states and won 25 out of 28 seats in Karnataka. In Assam, BJP has changed five out of nine MPs.
Political analyst Shastri said the strategy of removing incumbents has been used in the past in states like Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat, and the BJP may have found it effective at that time.
However, he said this approach could also pose challenges, especially because there is no guarantee that changing candidates will divert attention from the overall performance of the government.
He said, “When a person has been an MP for a term or more, he has developed his own base within the process. Depriving them of this by changing the candidate creates a sense of deprivation.”
Shastri argued that while someone from “frontline organisations” like the RSS may be more receptive to it because of their commitment to the core ideology, others may not be so.
He said, “Now you have people within the BJP who do not come through the frontal organisations and for these people this is a real loss of status and power.”
While BJP spokesperson RP Singh insisted that there was no rebellion within the party, there appears to be evidence to the contrary. For example, on Monday, the BJP asked former Union minister and two-time Hazaribagh MP Jayant Sinha to show cause for not joining the election campaign after Manish Jaiswal was declared its candidate, for “tarnishing” the party’s image. Notice has been issued.
(Click here to read this report in English)
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